Thoughts Before the NLDS

Will Buster Posey or the J-Hey Kid win the NL Rookie of the Year award?

The San Jose Mercury News wrote today about how similar the Giants and Braves are. Both teams feature great starting pitching, shut-down bullpens and average to below average hitting.


The Giants will trot out Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and the Braves counter with their top three of Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Lincecum and Lowe both bounced back from poor Augusts to post 5-1 and 5-0 records respectively.

The Giants bullpen had a 0.90 ERA from Sept. 1 through the end of the season, but Atlanta's relievers are equally formidable. They have closer Bill Wagner, (retiring after this season) Jonny Venters, deadly right-handed specialist Peter Moylan and Craig Kimbrel, who averages almost 2 Ks per inning.

The Braves offense may be even worse than the Giants', partly because injuries have hit their team hard. They lost Chipper Jones and all-star second baseman Martin Prado to season ending knee and oblique injuries. Brian McCann, their all-star catcher, led the team with only 77 RBI. The Braves did trade for the power hitting first baseman Derrek Lee though.

Both teams are almost completely identical but I think the Giants' pitching is just a little better. I'd take Lincecum, especially since he has been looking like the Cy Young Timmy of old, over Lowe any day and the Giants have gotten to Wagner a couple of times this year.

Lowe was 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA in September and October. 

I've heard all the stuff about how the ESPN analysts and the computers think the Giants will win, but anything can happen in the playoffs, especially in a short 5 game series. There's a difference between being favored to win and actually winning and I don't think the Giants play well when they're the favorites. This can be seen through their 2 losses to the Padres in the final series. 

I think the Giants are the better team but I could easily see them losing. They have virtually no post season experience (is Burrell the only Giant who's been to the playoffs?) and I can see Lincecum being erratic and Sanchez throwing walk after walk. The Giants need their starting pitching to be excellent. When their starters pitch well, they win; when they don't, they lose. It's as simple as that. 

Zito was one of the notable names left off the Giants NLDS roster. 

The Giants announced their NLDS roster today. Barry Zito and Jose Guillen were left off the roster while Aaron Rowand made it. 

Manager Bruce Bochy had said on KNBR earlier in the week that Zito wouldn't start but didn't address whether he might pitch out of the bullpen. Zito expressed his disappointment but didn't help his case last Saturday when he walked two batters with the bases loaded against the Padres. 

I was initially surprised when I saw that Guillen wasn't on the NLDS roster but apparentluy he is dealing with a neck injury. Guillen's recent hitting also must not have been good enough to offset his lack of mobility in right field. 

It was somewhat of a surprise that Rowand made the roster given that he hasn't started over Andres Torres since early in the year. His pinch hit 2-run home run in Friday's game against San Diego probably helped his case. 

-

This NLDS matchup pits the two leading candidates for NL Rookie of the Year against each other: Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. 

I think Posey should win because he helped boost a July Giants team that was 2 games over .500 to 22 games over .500 by the end of the year, managed a pitching staff that allowed 3 runs or less over 18 consecutive games, and hit .305. 

It seems like Heyward will win though because he played for the entire year. Also, he joins Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Al Kaline and A-Rod as the only players 20 years or younger and with at least 600 plate appearances in their season to have a .390 OBP or higher. 

I know the vote for ROY doesn't take into account the post season but I hope the writers are swayed when the Posey-led Giants crush Heyward and the tomahawk-chopping Braves. 

-

Some stats to consider:

The Giants have won 18 of their last 20 games when they score first. 

The Giants hit into the most double plays out of any national league team. Tim Hudson led the league (32) and Derek Lowe finished 9th in induced double plays. 

The Giants home run dependent offense goes up against a Braves staff that has allowed an NL low 126 homers. 

The Giants have allowed 3 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 26 games. The Braves went 5-39 when they scored 2 runs or less.